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    基于粒子群优化算法的腐蚀预测灰色动态模型

    A Dynamic Grey Model of Corrosion Prediction Based on PSO Arithemetic

    • 摘要: 针对海底管道腐蚀预测提出一种基于粒子群优化(PSO)算法的新型灰色预测模型。在传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上引入PSO算法优化背景权值和等维灰数递补方法对模型进行动态更新,建立了RGM(1,1)和RPGM(1,1)模型并应用在海底管道腐蚀预测中。对比三种模型的预测结果后发现,灰色预测理论适用于海底管道腐蚀预测;RGM(1,1)模型比传统GM(1,1)模型的预测效果稍好;RPGM(1,1)模型预的测精度与另外两种模型相比,有大幅提升。PSO算法对传统模型的改进效果显著,RPGM(1,1)模型具有较高的工程应用价值。

       

      Abstract: A new grey prediction model based on PSO optimization algorithm was proposed for the prediction of seabed pipeline corrosion. Based on the traditional gray GM (1,1) model, the PSO algorithm was introduced to optimize the background weight λ and the model was dynamically updated by introducing equal dimension grey recurrence method. RGM (1,1) and RPGM (1,1) were applied to the prediction of submarine pipeline corrosion. Comparing the prediction results of the three models, it was found that the grey prediction theory was suitable for the prediction of submarine pipeline corrosion,and the prediction result of the RGM(1,1) model was slightly better than that of the traditional GM(1,1) model. The pre-measurement accuracy of the RPGM (1,1) model was greatly improved compared to the other two models. The PSO algorithm had a significant improvement effect on the traditional model, and the RPGM (1,1) model has high engineering application value.

       

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