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    基于KPCA-GA-BP模型的页岩气集输管道的内腐蚀速率预测

    Internal Corrosion Rate Prediction of Shale Gas Gathering Pipeline Based on KPCA-GA-BP Model

    • 摘要: 针对页岩气集输管道的内腐蚀,提出了一种基于KPCA-GA-BP组合模型的腐蚀速率预测算法。以某条页岩气集输管道的检测结果作为训练数据,运用反向传播(BP)神经网络建立预测模型,运用遗传算法(GA)优化了神经网络权值和阈值的初始值,运用核主成分分析法(KPCA)对数据进行了降维,在模型建立的过程中不断优化提升模型的预测精度,采用所建模型对另一条相邻管道进行预测并开挖验证。结果表明:选择TRAINGDM作为训练函数,隐含层节点为(8,1),遗传算法进化数为50,种群规模为100,交叉概率为0.3,变异概率为0.2,运用KPCA将数据从7维降为4维后,此模型的均方误差最低为0.12,当该模型用于相邻管道的预测时,均方误差为0.14。运用KPCA-GA-BP模型,对页岩气集输管道内腐蚀速率进行预测具有一定的准确性,此模型可用于辅助指导现场内腐蚀直接评价等相关工作。

       

      Abstract: A corrosion rate prediction algorithm based on KPCA-GA-BP combination model was proposed for the internal corrosion of shale gas gathering and transportation pipelines. Using the detection results of a shale gas gathering and transportation pipeline as training data, a prediction model was established using backpropagation (BP) neural network. Genetic algorithm (GA) was used to optimize the initial values of neural network weights and thresholds, and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) was used to reduce the dimensionality of the data. During the model building process, the accuracy of the model's prediction was continuously improved. The constructed model was used to predict and excavate another adjacent pipeline for verification. The results show that when selecting TRAINGDM as the training function, the hidden layer nodes was (8, 1), the genetic algorithm evolution number was 50, the population size was 100, the crossover probability was 0.3, and the mutation probability was 0.2, after using KPCA to reduce the 7 dimensions to 4 dimensions, the minimum mean square error (MSE) of this model was 0.12. When this model was used for predicting adjacent pipelines, the MSE was 0.14. The application of KPCA-GA-BP model to predict the internal corrosion rate of shale gas gathering and transportation pipelines had certain accuracy, and this model could be used to assist in guiding the direct evaluation of on-site corrosion and other related work.

       

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