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    城镇燃气管道腐蚀失效逻辑回归预测模型的构建与应用

    Construction and Application of a Logistic Regression Prediction Model for Corrosion Failure of Urban Gas Pipelines

    • 摘要: 为打破城镇燃气管道失效传统预测模型在信息采集和计算上的空间限制,利用云环境搭建了管道失效预测模型。首先对人机环管模型进行梳理,运用鱼骨图对影响城镇燃气管道失效的因素进行定性分析,并利用聚类分析方法得到管道失效的主要因素;然后收集城镇燃气事故数据和管道设计指标,结合广义灰色关联分析法提取影响城镇燃气管道失效的关键因素;最后在云环境中建立基于逻辑回归算法的管道失效预测模型,并通过实际案例验证模型的可行性。结果表明:基于逻辑回归算法的燃气管道失效预测模型准确率达到了89%,证明本模型适用于城镇燃气管道的失效预测。

       

      Abstract: In order to break the space limitation of the traditional prediction model of urban gas pipeline failure in information collection and calculation, a prediction model of pipeline failure was built by using cloud environment. Firstly, the human-machine-environment-management model was reviewed, the factors affecting urban gas pipelines were qualitatively analyzed by fishbone diagram, and the main factors of urban gas pipeline failure were obtained using cluster analysis method. Then, the data of urban gas accident and pipeline design indexes were collected, and the key factors affecting urban gas pipeline failure were extracted by generalized grey correlation analysis method. Finally, a pipeline failure prediction model based on logistic regression algorithm was established in the cloud environment, and the feasibility of the model was verified by practical cases. The results show that the accuracy of the prediction model reached 89%, which proved that the model was suitable for failure prediction of urban gas pipelines.

       

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