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    基于粒子群优化后随机森林模型的管道内腐蚀风险预测

    Pipeline Corrosion Risk Prediction Based on Particle Swarm Optimized Random Forest Model

    • 摘要: 基于塔河油田历史失效数据,使用Pearson相关性分析和灰色关联度分析确定管道内腐蚀主控因素,并将其作为模型输入变量,腐蚀速率作为输出变量,建立随机森林(RF)腐蚀预测模型。为提高预测精度,使用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对RF模型的超参数进行优化。结果表明:塔河油田输油管道内腐蚀主控因素为CO2分压、温度、Cl-含量和H2S分压;经PSO优化后RF模型的决定系数R2为0.97,均方根误差为0.161,平均绝对误差为0.027,均优于其他3种模型。因此,PSO优化后RF模型能够准确预测管道的腐蚀速率,为油气田管道的腐蚀预警和防护提供依据和支持。

       

      Abstract: Based on the historical failure data of Tahe oilfield, Pearson correlation analysis and Grey correlation degree analysis were used to determine the main controlling factors of pipeline corrosion, and the random forest (RF) corrosion prediction model was established by taking them as input variables and corrosion rate as output variables. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was used to optimize the hyper-parameters of the RF model in order to improve the prediction performance. The results show that the main controlling factors of internal corrosion of Tahe oil pipeline were partial pressure of CO2, temperature, Cl- concentration and partial pressure of H2S. After the RF model was optimized with the PSO algorithm, the coefficient of determination R2 was 0.97, and the root mean square error and the mean absolute error was 0.161 and 0.027, respectively, which were better than the other three regression models. As a result, the PSO optimized RF model had high accuracy in predicting corrosion rate of pipelines. It can provide reference and support for corrosion early warning and protection of oil and gas pipelines.

       

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