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    基于腐蚀管道剩余强度评价模型不确定性的全概率分析

    Full-Probabilistic Analysis Considering Model Uncertainty of Residual Strength of Corroded Pipelines

    • 摘要: 针对腐蚀管道剩余强度评价模型的不确定性,采用全概率数学方法进行评价分析。调研统计了237组腐蚀管道剩余强度试验数据,定义了模型因子ε,并基于试验数据计算了4种常用腐蚀管道剩余强度评价模型的模型因子。基于试验数据获得关于腐蚀管道剩余强度理论模型参数的多元回归方程f,以f代替ε进而优化腐蚀管道剩余强度模型公式。结果表明:模型因子与腐蚀管道剩余强度公式各参数具有相关性;修正后腐蚀管道剩余强度公式的预测值更接近试验值。全概率法适用于修正腐蚀管道剩余强度评价模型,解决其不确定性问题,为评价及优化腐蚀管道剩余强度评价模型提供了理论分析方法。

       

      Abstract: The uncertainty of residual strength evaluation models for corroded pipelines was evaluated and analyzed by full-probabilitstic mathematical method. 237 groups of residual strength test data of corroded pipelines were investigated and counted, the model factor (ε) was defined, and the model factors of four common residual strength models for corroded pipeline were calculated based on the test data. A multiple regression equation (f) for the theoretical model parameters of the residual strength of corroded pipelines was obtained based on the experimental data, and the f was used instead of the ε to optimize the formula for the residual strength model of corroded pipelines. The results show that the model factors were correlated with the parameters of the residual strength formula for corroded pipelines. The values predicted through the residual strength formula for corroded pipelines after correction were closer to the experimental values. The full-probabilistic method is suitable for correcting the residual strength evaluation model of corroded pipelines, solving the uncertainty problem and providing a theoretical analysis method for evaluating and optimizing residual strength evaluation models of corroded pipelines.

       

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