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    工艺管道点蚀深度极值分布模型

    Extreme Value Distribution Model of Process Pipeline Pitting Depth

    • 摘要: 介绍了一种工艺管道点蚀深度极值分布模型的构建方法。以管壁减薄量(点蚀深度)的测量结果为数据集,采用广义极值(GEV)分布对减薄数据集进行拟合,根据参数估计结果建立点蚀深度极值分布模型。最后对该模型进行了验证。结果表明:模型预测累计概率均方根误差为9.5%,模型精确度较高。

       

      Abstract: A method for constructing an extreme value distribution model of pitting depth in process pipelines was introduced. Using the measurement results of pipe wall thickness reduction (pitting depth) as the dataset, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was used to fit the thickness reduction dataset. Based on the parameter estimation results, a pitting depth extreme value distribution model was established. Finally, the model was validated. The results indicate that the root mean square error of the cumulative probability of the model was 9.5%, indicating a high accuracy of the model.

       

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