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    基于贝叶斯网络的天然气管道外腐蚀维修决策

    Maintenance Decision-Making of Natural Gas Pipeline External Corrosion Based on Bayesian Network

    • 摘要: 基于贝叶斯网络对天然气管道进行了外腐蚀风险评价,针对管道运行场景、失效状态制定维修策略。首先,针对管道外腐蚀进行危险源辨识,并根据辨识结果建立外腐蚀风险评价模型;其次,总结现有管道的外腐蚀维修方式和相应成本,结合维修方式和风险评价模型建立维修决策模型,综合维修成本和外腐蚀损失建立最优化函数进行辅助维修决策,实现对管道外腐蚀情景下维修方式的合理选择。

       

      Abstract: According to different operation scenarios and failure states of pipelines, a risk assessment model and a maintenance decision-making model based on Bayesian network (BN) were proposed. The hazard source identification was carried out for the external corrosion of the pipeline, and the external corrosion risk assessment model was established according to the identification results. Then, the existing maintenance methods and corresponding costs of external corrosion of pipelines were summarized and the maintenance decision model was established by combining the statistical results and risk assessment model. The optimization function was created by integrating the maintenance cost and external corrosion loss. The function can be used to develop the maintenance decisions and can realize the reasonable choice of maintenance strategies under the situation of external corrosion of pipelines.

       

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