Pipeline Corrosion Risk Prediction Based on Particle Swarm Optimized Random Forest Model

Based on the historical failure data of Tahe oilfield, Pearson correlation analysis and Grey correlation degree analysis were used to determine the main controlling factors of pipeline corrosion, and the random forest (RF) corrosion prediction model was established by taking them as input variables and corrosion rate as output variables. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was used to optimize the hyper-parameters of the RF model in order to improve the prediction performance. The results show that the main controlling factors of internal corrosion of Tahe oil pipeline were partial pressure of CO₂, temperature, Cl^- concentration and partial pressure of H₂S. After the RF model was optimized with the PSO algorithm, the coefficient of determination R² was 0.97, and the root mean square error and the mean absolute error was 0.161 and 0.027, respectively, which were better than the other three regression models. As a result, the PSO optimized RF model had high accuracy in predicting corrosion rate of pipelines. It can provide reference and support for corrosion early warning and protection of oil and gas pipelines.